A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
