Why Is The Current US Shutdown Distinct (and More Intractable)?
Shutdowns are a repeat feature of US politics – but this one feels particularly intractable because of shifting political forces and deep-seated animosity among the two parties.
Some government services face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 employees likely to be placed on furlough without pay since both political parties remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Votes aimed at ending the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see an off-ramp in this instance as each side – as well as the nation's leader – can see some merit in maintaining their positions.
Here are the four ways that make things feel different currently.
1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – not just healthcare
The Democratic base has been demanding over recent periods that their party adopt stronger opposition against the current presidency. Well now Democratic leaders has a chance to show their responsiveness.
In March, Senate leader faced strong criticism after supporting GOP budget legislation and averting a government closure early this year. This time he's digging in.
This presents an opportunity for the Democratic party to demonstrate their ability to reclaim some control from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk that the wider public may become impatient as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on expiring health insurance subsidies together with GOP-backed government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.
Additionally, they're attempting to restrict executive utilization of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, which he has done with foreign aid and other programmes.
Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The administration leader along with a senior aide have made little secret their perspective that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions in government employment that have featured the current presidential term to date.
The nation's leader personally stated recently that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
The White House stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary said this was just "fiscal sanity".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, but the White House has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.
The budget director has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, such as NYC and Chicago.
3. There's little trust on either side
Whereas past government closures have been characterised by late-night talks between the two parties aimed at restoring federal operations, currently there seems little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.
Instead, animosity prevails. Political tensions continued over the weekend, as both sides blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.
House Speaker a Republican, accused Democrats of not being serious toward resolution, and maintaining positions over a deal "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges at the other side, saying that a Republican promise regarding health funding talks once the government reopens can not be taken seriously.
The President himself has escalated tensions through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior opposition figure, in which the legislator appears wearing a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.
The representative and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
4. The US economy is fragile
Experts project approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave as a result of the shutdown.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of government activity connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.
The closure additionally introduces fresh instability within economic systems currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including tariffs, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and technological advancements.
Economic forecasters project potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth for each week it lasts.
However, economic activity generally rebounds the majority of interrupted operations following resolution, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.
This might explain partially why financial markets have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, experts indicate should administration officials implement proposed significant workforce reductions, economic harm might become extended in duration.